The halvings: a history

Four halvings so far, each on schedule. What changed, and what we can't predict. Not advice.

Educational content, not financial advice.

Every 210,000 blocks, the new-coin reward per block halves. The block height is fixed in the code, so nobody can delay or speed it up.

So far (block timestamps from mempool.space)

  • Block 210,000 – 28 Nov 2012: 50 → 25 BTC
  • Block 420,000 – 9 Jul 2016: 25 → 12.5 BTC
  • Block 630,000 – 11 May 2020: 12.5 → 6.25 BTC
  • Block 840,000 – 20 Apr 2024: 6.25 → 3.125 BTC

The next halving is at block 1,050,000. As of 23 Oct 2026 the chain is at about block 972,830, so roughly 77,000 blocks remain – about a year and a half at ten minutes per block, i.e. around spring 2028 (own estimate).

Market cycles

Past halvings were followed by large price rises and then deep falls. Whether halvings caused this is debated, and with fewer new coins each time, their effect on supply matters less and less. Past cycles say nothing certain about the future.

What does not change

The point is not the price chart; it is that a monetary rule set in 2009 has been followed to the block for over 17 years.