Game theory of adoption

Why individuals, companies and even states may adopt bitcoin, each acting in their own interest.

Educational information, not financial advice.

Bitcoin does not need anyone to cooperate out of goodwill. Its design makes honest behaviour the profitable choice.

Inside the protocol

The white paper argues that a miner with large hashrate "ought to find it more profitable to play by the rules" than to attack the system that pays them. Nodes reject invalid blocks, so cheating wastes the cost of mining.

Outside the protocol

  • Savers: if a money cannot be debased, holding some is a hedge.
  • Institutions: once a peer offers exposure, competitors face pressure to follow. Spot ETFs approved on 10 Jan 2024 made this simple in the US.
  • States: a country that bans bitcoin loses talent and capital to ones that allow it.

The honest part

Game theory describes incentives, not certainty. Adoption has been uneven, and some countries have tried and reversed forced use (legal tender). Voluntary adoption is the pattern that lasts.